Hatayspor 1-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Hatayspor face Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hatayspor host Başakşehir at Mersin Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hatayspor stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Hatayspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Başakşehir — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Başakşehir — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Hatayspor's games and 60% of Başakşehir's (from Hatayspor's last 10 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Başakşehir have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Hatayspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2023, ended Hatayspor 0–1 Başakşehir — a Başakşehir win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Başakşehir have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Başakşehir trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 39% versus Başakşehir 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 62% | Başakşehir 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.31 xG and Başakşehir 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.922 / defence 1.137 | Başakşehir attack 1.126 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.222. Data: built from Hatayspor's last 69 games and Başakşehir's last 69.
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 30% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 42%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 3.32 | Draw 3.55 | Başakşehir 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hatayspor's last 10 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hatayspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 34 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 30% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Hatayspor 1.31 / Başakşehir 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.922 / def 1.137 | Başakşehir attack 1.126 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Başakşehir xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hatayspor vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Hatayspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Hatayspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Hatayspor 1 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Hatayspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Hatayspor vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 34) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 30% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hatayspor and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hatayspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hatayspor's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hatayspor's last 69 games and Başakşehir's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
30%
3.32
28%
3.55
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.87
1.56
Başakşehir xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
6%
15.86
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hatayspor vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.56 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 13W 17D 39L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 32W 15D 22L from 69 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatayspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.12 PPG from their last 34 home games (9W 11D 14L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 11W 10D 13L from their last 34 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hatayspor are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.42 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
Hatayspor (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hatayspor
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Hatayspor vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Hatayspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 13W 17D 39L in their last 69 games (0.81 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 32W 15D 22L in their last 69 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.12 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Başakşehir have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Dec 2021, when Başakşehir won Hatayspor 0-3 Başakşehir.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Hatayspor
1
Draws
7
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Hatayspor vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Başakşehir?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hatayspor have won 0, Başakşehir have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2025: Hatayspor 2-4 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 50%, Başakşehir 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Hatayspor) and 38% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 41% of games; Başakşehir in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hatayspor vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hatayspor and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 44% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hatayspor and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Hatayspor's recent games and 38% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 65% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Hatayspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Hatayspor 1-2 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.31 xG and Başakşehir 1.56 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against Başakşehir attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 30% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 42%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 62%, Başakşehir 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.