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Poisson rates Göztepe at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Fatih Karagümrük travel to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu to take on Göztepe. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Göztepe at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Göztepe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Göztepe winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Göztepe trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.

Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 37% versus Fatih Karagümrük 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Göztepe 32% | Fatih Karagümrük 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.82 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.089 / defence 0.701 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.665 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.301. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.701 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Göztepe games / 19 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Göztepe 64% | Draw 28% | Fatih Karagümrük 9%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.56 | Draw 3.57 | Fatih Karagümrük 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (64%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 56% BTTS from recent games.

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