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Poisson rates Göztepe at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Alanyaspor encounter.

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Analysis

Alanyaspor make the trip to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu to face Göztepe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Göztepe (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Göztepe at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Göztepe are significantly better at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Alanyaspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alanyaspor away from home this season: 0W 8D 2L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Göztepe. A 0.60 PPG lead over Alanyaspor (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to Alanyaspor, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Alanyaspor winning.

It is worth noting that Alanyaspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Göztepe half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 52% versus Alanyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 46% | Alanyaspor 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.23 xG and Alanyaspor 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.877 / defence 0.666 | Alanyaspor attack 0.968 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.239. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.666 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Göztepe games / 61 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Göztepe 42% | Draw 37% | Alanyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.38 | Draw 2.70 | Alanyaspor 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

Alanyaspor lead the H2H ledger, but Göztepe carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Göztepe at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 30% | Alanyaspor 80%.

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