Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Eryaman Stadium plays host to Gençlerbirliği S.K. versus Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 18 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Gençlerbirliği S.K. (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gençlerbirliği S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have posted 4W 1D 3L at Eryaman Stadium — 1.62 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Samsunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Gençlerbirliği S.K. against 1.30 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gençlerbirliği S.K. have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Samsunspor in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0W, Samsunspor 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Samsunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gençlerbirliği S.K. — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gençlerbirliği S.K. 59% and Samsunspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 59% | Samsunspor 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.71 xG and Samsunspor 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.207 / defence 1.175 | Samsunspor attack 1.117 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.279. Data: 17 Gençlerbirliği S.K. games / 53 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 36% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Samsunspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gençlerbirliği S.K. as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gençlerbirliği S.K. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 62% | Samsunspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Eryaman Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 36% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 70% | xG Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.71 / Samsunspor 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.207 / def 1.175 | Samsunspor attack 1.117 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Gençlerbirliği S.K. (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Samsunspor xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Samsunspor kick off?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Samsunspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Eryaman Stadium.
What was the final score in Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Samsunspor?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadium.
What competition is Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Samsunspor part of?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 36% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gençlerbirliği S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Samsunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Samsunspor in?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack at 1.21x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (1.12x) against Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 17/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gençlerbirliği S.K. Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.51
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
Total xG
3.39
1.68
Samsunspor xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
7%
14.79
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 1.68 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 5W 3D 9L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gençlerbirliği S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor's form line: 6W 7D 4L from 17 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Samsunspor are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gençlerbirliği S.K..
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Gençlerbirliği S.K. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Gençlerbirliği S.K. are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 6W 7D 4L in their last 17 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home or Samsunspor away?
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home: 1.62 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Samsunspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have won 0, Samsunspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gençlerbirliği S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 75% for Samsunspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 50% for Samsunspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gençlerbirliği S.K. home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gençlerbirliği S.K. play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s games and 75% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s matches and 50% of Samsunspor's.
Do Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Eryaman Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Samsunspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.71 xG and Samsunspor 1.68 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.21 / defence 1.18 against Samsunspor attack 1.12 / defence 1.07, drawn from 17/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gençlerbirliği S.K. 36% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 35%, with Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 59%, Samsunspor 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.