🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Çorum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Eryaman Stadium plays host to Gençlerbirliği S.K. versus Çorum FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 20 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Gençlerbirliği S.K. haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s home record at Eryaman Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gençlerbirliği S.K. are significantly better at Eryaman Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.72 xG and Çorum FK 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.941 / defence 1.073 | Çorum FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Gençlerbirliği S.K. games / 0 Çorum FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 51% | Draw 28% | Çorum FK 21%. Fair-value odds: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Çorum FK 4.76. Gençlerbirliği S.K. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Gençlerbirliği S.K. are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gençlerbirliği S.K. if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights