Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 35%, yet in-form Kasımpaşa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 33 as Gençlerbirliği S.K. welcome Kasımpaşa to Eryaman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gençlerbirliği S.K. — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have posted 4W 3D 3L at Eryaman Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Gençlerbirliği S.K. are significantly better at Eryaman Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kasımpaşa — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 0 for Kasımpaşa and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Gençlerbirliği S.K. in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50% versus Kasımpaşa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50% | Kasımpaşa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.38 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.774 / defence 1.164 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.000 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kasımpaşa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Gençlerbirliği S.K. games / 68 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 35% | Draw 33% | Kasımpaşa 31%. Fair-value odds: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Kasımpaşa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kasımpaşa (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gençlerbirliği S.K. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50% | Kasımpaşa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Eryaman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 35% | Draw 33% | Kasımpaşa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.38 / Kasımpaşa 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.774 / def 1.164 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.000 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Gençlerbirliği S.K. (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Kasımpaşa xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Eryaman Stadium.
What was the final score in Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadium.
What competition is Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 35% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gençlerbirliği S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa?
Record (1 meetings): Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa in?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack rating (0.77) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gençlerbirliği S.K. Win
35%
2.83
33%
3.01
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
Total xG
2.67
1.29
Kasımpaşa xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
8%
12.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 1.29 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gençlerbirliği S.K. come into this having played 32 games, going 7W 7D 18L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.00 PPG from 32 outings (7W 11D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gençlerbirliği S.K. on 0.88 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s home form reads 6W 4D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Gençlerbirliği S.K. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (3W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gençlerbirliği S.K. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gençlerbirliği S.K. are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 0.94 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. have gone 7W 7D 18L in their last 32 games (0.88 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 11D 14L in their last 32 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home: 1.38 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa?
From 2 meetings on record, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3-2 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gençlerbirliği S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gençlerbirliği S.K. 56%, Kasımpaşa 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Gençlerbirliği S.K.) and 62% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gençlerbirliği S.K. home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gençlerbirliği S.K. play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s games and 62% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s matches and 62% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gençlerbirliği S.K. edge out Kasımpaşa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Kasımpaşa 3-2 at Eryaman Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.38 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.77 / defence 1.16 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.00 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gençlerbirliği S.K. 35% | Draw 33% | Kasımpaşa 31%, with Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50%, Kasımpaşa 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.88 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gençlerbirliği S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.