Gaziantep FK 0-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Gaziantep FK take on Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Trabzonspor travel to Gaziantep Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Monday 23 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gaziantep FK stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gaziantep FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gaziantep FK at 1.60 PPG versus Trabzonspor's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Trabzonspor, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Gaziantep FK.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 2–4 with Trabzonspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Trabzonspor have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Gaziantep FK in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 50% versus Trabzonspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 50% | Trabzonspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 0.94 xG and Trabzonspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.895 / defence 0.970 | Trabzonspor attack 0.808 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.253. Trabzonspor's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Gaziantep FK games / 42 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 32% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Trabzonspor 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 50% | Trabzonspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 23 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 32% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Gaziantep FK 0.94 / Trabzonspor 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.895 / def 0.970 | Trabzonspor attack 0.808 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Trabzonspor xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 September 2024 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 32% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor?
Record (5 meetings): Gaziantep FK 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 4W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.16
34%
2.91
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
1.92
0.98
Trabzonspor xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 14.4 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.98 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 13W 8D 21L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor's form line: 21W 8D 13L from 42 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gaziantep FK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gaziantep FK have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (6W 6D 8L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 9W 5D 6L from 20 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.69 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 13W 8D 21L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 21W 8D 13L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.20 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2021, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor?
From 9 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 45%, Trabzonspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Gaziantep FK) and 50% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 30% of games; Trabzonspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 55% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 50% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gaziantep FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor finished level at 0-0 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 0.94 xG and Trabzonspor 0.98 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Trabzonspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.75, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 32% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 34%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 50%, Trabzonspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.