Gaziantep FK 1-3 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Trabzonspor travel to Kalyon Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gaziantep FK stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kalyon Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kalyon Stadyumu this season.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gaziantep FK at 1.50 PPG versus Trabzonspor's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Gaziantep FK, 2 for Trabzonspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 2–3 with Trabzonspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Gaziantep FK in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 41% versus Trabzonspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 59% | Trabzonspor 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.19 xG and Trabzonspor 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.750 / defence 0.959 | Trabzonspor attack 1.247 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.244. Gaziantep FK's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Gaziantep FK games / 49 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 30% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 44%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Trabzonspor 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Gaziantep FK 10% | Trabzonspor 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 30% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.19 / Trabzonspor 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.750 / def 0.959 | Trabzonspor attack 1.247 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Trabzonspor xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 3 Trabzonspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 30% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor?
Record (3 meetings): Gaziantep FK 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
30%
3.34
26%
3.78
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.68
1.49
Trabzonspor xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
7%
14.77
13%
7.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.49 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 11W 7D 31L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 23W 8D 18L from 49 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gaziantep FK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gaziantep FK have posted 0.96 PPG from 23 outings (6W 4D 13L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 4D 14L from 23 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
The Goals Picture
Gaziantep FK are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.73 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 11W 7D 31L in their last 49 games (0.82 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 23W 8D 18L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Trabzonspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 0.96 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2021, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor?
From 9 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 44%, Trabzonspor 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Gaziantep FK and 74% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Gaziantep FK's games and 74% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 74% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Gaziantep FK 1-3 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.19 xG and Trabzonspor 1.49 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.49 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.75 / defence 0.96 against Trabzonspor attack 1.25 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 30% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 44%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 59%, Trabzonspor 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.