Gaziantep FK 1-3 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sivasspor at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Sivasspor travel to Kalyon Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 August 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 0W 0D 10L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.10 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Gaziantep FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gaziantep FK's home record at Kalyon Stadyumu: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sivasspor are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Gaziantep FK, 1 for Sivasspor and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Sivasspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Sivasspor trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 47% versus Sivasspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 67% | Sivasspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.24 xG and Sivasspor 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.789 / defence 1.281 | Sivasspor attack 0.999 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.323. Gaziantep FK's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Gaziantep FK games / 37 Sivasspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 26% | Draw 29% | Sivasspor 46%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Sivasspor 2.17. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Gaziantep FK 30% | Sivasspor 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 26% | Draw 29% | Sivasspor 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.24 / Sivasspor 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.789 / def 1.281 | Sivasspor attack 0.999 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Sivasspor xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 3 Sivasspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 26% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor?
Record (4 meetings): Gaziantep FK 1W | Draws 2 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.10 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
26%
3.90
29%
3.47
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.94
1.69
Sivasspor xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
5%
21.24
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.69 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 6W 7D 23L from 36 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 17L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sivasspor by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gaziantep FK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 3W 4D 10L from 17 games — 0.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 6W 1D 10L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Gaziantep FK are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.28 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Early Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 6W 7D 23L in their last 36 games (0.69 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 11W 8D 17L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Sivasspor away?
Sivasspor's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 0.76 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2022, when Gaziantep FK won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Sivasspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Gaziantep FK 2-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 53%, Sivasspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Gaziantep FK and 71% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 41% of games; Sivasspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 53% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 71% of Sivasspor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Gaziantep FK 1-3 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.24 xG and Sivasspor 1.69 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sivasspor outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.79 / defence 1.28 against Sivasspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 26% | Draw 29% | Sivasspor 46%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 67%, Sivasspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sivasspor arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.