Gaziantep FK 0-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gaziantep FK at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Kalyon Stadyumu to face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Gaziantep FK (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gaziantep FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gaziantep FK at Kalyon Stadyumu this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Samsunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Gaziantep FK. A 0.90 PPG lead over Samsunspor (1.60 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gaziantep FK lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 49% versus Samsunspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 49% | Samsunspor 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.53 xG and Samsunspor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.976 / defence 0.983 | Samsunspor attack 0.845 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.268. Data: 39 Gaziantep FK games / 39 Samsunspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 46% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Samsunspor 4.17. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 50% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 46% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.53 / Samsunspor 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.976 / def 0.983 | Samsunspor attack 0.845 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Samsunspor xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 46% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor?
Record (2 meetings): Gaziantep FK 1W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 0W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.98) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.84x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
46%
2.16
30%
3.37
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.59
1.05
Samsunspor xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
5%
19.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.05 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 13W 8D 18L from 39 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 18L across 39 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.10 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 6W 6D 7L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 1W 5D 13L across 19 trips, a 0.42 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.08 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 13W 8D 18L in their last 39 games (1.21 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 11W 10D 18L in their last 39 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Samsunspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.26 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Samsunspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Samsunspor 0-0 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 47%, Samsunspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Gaziantep FK) and 42% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 26% of games; Samsunspor in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 58% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 42% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Samsunspor defy the odds to beat Gaziantep FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Gaziantep FK 0-1 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.53 xG and Samsunspor 1.05 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gaziantep FK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Samsunspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.09, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 46% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 24%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Samsunspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 49%, Samsunspor 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Samsunspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.21 PPG, Samsunspor 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.