Gaziantep FK 3-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Gaziantep Stadyumu to face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 09:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gaziantep FK have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK at Gaziantep Stadyumu this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Konyaspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Gaziantep FK, 1.10 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Gaziantep FK 2W, Konyaspor 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 52% versus Konyaspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 50% | Konyaspor 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.35 xG and Konyaspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.820 / defence 0.826 | Konyaspor attack 0.947 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.334. Data: 46 Gaziantep FK games / 47 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 43% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Konyaspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gaziantep FK at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 40% | Konyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 43% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.35 / Konyaspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.820 / def 0.826 | Konyaspor attack 0.947 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Konyaspor xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor kicked off at 09:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Gaziantep FK 3 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 43% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Gaziantep FK 2W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 3W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.82) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.95x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.56
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.39
1.04
Konyaspor xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
7%
13.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.04 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 11D 22L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.11 PPG from 46 outings (12W 15D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.11 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Gaziantep FK's home form reads 6W 8D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.91 points per game from 22 outings (4W 8D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.07 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 13W 11D 22L in their last 46 games (1.09 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 12W 15D 19L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Konyaspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.18 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gaziantep FK
2
Draws
5
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 3, Konyaspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 46%, Konyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Gaziantep FK) and 46% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 32% of games; Konyaspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 54% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 46% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Konyaspor 3-1 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.35 xG and Konyaspor 1.04 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gaziantep FK beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.82 / defence 0.83 against Konyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.14, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 43% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 29%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 50%, Konyaspor 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.09 PPG, Konyaspor 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.