Gaziantep FK 2-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Kasımpaşa travel to Kalyon Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Monday 9 February 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gaziantep FK stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kalyon Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gaziantep FK 0.80 PPG, Kasımpaşa 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Gaziantep FK, 4 for Kasımpaşa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 3–2 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Gaziantep FK in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gaziantep FK 59% and Kasımpaşa 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 61% | Kasımpaşa 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.36 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.958 / defence 1.166 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.827 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.318. Data: 56 Gaziantep FK games / 56 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 35% | Draw 34% | Kasımpaşa 31%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Kasımpaşa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 60% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 9 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 35% | Draw 34% | Kasımpaşa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.36 / Kasımpaşa 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.958 / def 1.166 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.827 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Kasımpaşa xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 9 February 2026 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Gaziantep FK 2 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 35% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa?
Record (9 meetings): Gaziantep FK 3W | Draws 2 | Kasımpaşa 4W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
35%
2.84
34%
2.97
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.63
1.27
Kasımpaşa xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.27 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 18W 16D 22L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 14W 21D 21L from 56 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 1.25 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gaziantep FK have posted 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (13W 7D 8L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 9D 10L from 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.38 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 18W 16D 22L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 14W 21D 21L in their last 56 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.64 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gaziantep FK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when Kasımpaşa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gaziantep FK
2
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Gaziantep FK 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 50%, Kasımpaşa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Gaziantep FK) and 64% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 29% of games; Kasımpaşa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 57% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 64% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gaziantep FK edge out Kasımpaşa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.36 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.27 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 35% | Draw 34% | Kasımpaşa 31%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 61%, Kasımpaşa 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.25 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.