Gaziantep FK 1-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Kalyon Stadyumu to face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gaziantep FK have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Kalyon Stadyumu this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Hatayspor (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Gaziantep FK. A 0.50 PPG lead over Hatayspor (1.00 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gaziantep FK lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 46% versus Hatayspor 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 58% | Hatayspor 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.21 xG and Hatayspor 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.797 / defence 1.017 | Hatayspor attack 0.655 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.238. Gaziantep FK's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Gaziantep FK games / 70 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 43% | Draw 33% | Hatayspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Hatayspor 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gaziantep FK at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 50% | Hatayspor 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 43% | Draw 33% | Hatayspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.21 / Hatayspor 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.797 / def 1.017 | Hatayspor attack 0.655 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Hatayspor xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 43% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Hatayspor?
Record (5 meetings): Gaziantep FK 2W | Draws 2 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Hatayspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gaziantep FK's attack at 0.80x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.66x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 69/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
43%
2.31
33%
3.01
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.03
0.82
Hatayspor xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
7%
14.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.82 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK come into this having played 69 games, going 15W 14D 40L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.81 PPG from 69 outings (13W 17D 39L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 0.81 for Hatayspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Gaziantep FK's home form reads 8W 9D 17L across 34 games on their own ground, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.53 points per game from 34 outings (4W 6D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.83 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Hatayspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 15W 14D 40L in their last 69 games (0.86 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 13W 17D 39L in their last 69 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Hatayspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 0.97 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gaziantep FK won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Gaziantep FK 2-1 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Hatayspor?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 47%, Hatayspor 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gaziantep FK) and 59% (Hatayspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 35% of games; Hatayspor in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 29% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 59% of Hatayspor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK and Hatayspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, as Gaziantep FK and Hatayspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.21 xG and Hatayspor 0.82 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Hatayspor attack 0.66 / defence 0.98, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 43% | Draw 33% | Hatayspor 24%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 58%, Hatayspor 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Hatayspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 0.86 PPG, Hatayspor 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.