Gaziantep FK 1-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gaziantep FK face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gaziantep Stadyumu plays host to Gaziantep FK versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Gaziantep FK (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gaziantep Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fenerbahçe's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fenerbahçe are 0.80 PPG clear of Gaziantep FK in recent Süper Lig fixtures (2.40 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Fenerbahçe hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2024, ended 1–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 54% versus Fenerbahçe 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 54% | Fenerbahçe 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.14 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.904 / defence 0.750 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.661 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.155. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.661 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Gaziantep FK's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Gaziantep FK games / 68 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 30% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 44%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Fenerbahçe 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Gaziantep FK 30% | Fenerbahçe 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 30% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.14 / Fenerbahçe 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.904 / def 0.750 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.661 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Fenerbahçe xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 3 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 30% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe?
Record (6 meetings): Gaziantep FK 0W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 6W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.90) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.66x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
30%
3.35
26%
3.82
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.58
1.44
Fenerbahçe xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
7%
14.11
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.44 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK come into this having played 68 games, going 24W 14D 30L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.51 PPG from 68 outings (53W 12D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Gaziantep FK's home form reads 16W 9D 9L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.50 points per game from 34 outings (26W 7D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.59 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 24W 14D 30L in their last 68 games (1.26 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 53W 12D 3L in their last 68 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.68 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-4 on 27 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
9
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Gaziantep FK 0-0 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 44%, Fenerbahçe 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gaziantep FK) and 50% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 53%; Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 44% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 50% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Gaziantep FK 1-3 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.14 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.44 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.90 / defence 0.75 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.66 / defence 0.78, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 30% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 44%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 54%, Fenerbahçe 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.