Gaziantep FK 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gaziantep FK face Fatih Karagümrük.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük meet at Kalyon Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 37). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Gaziantep FK's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Gaziantep FK at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Gaziantep FK, 0.90 for Fatih Karagümrük — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Gaziantep FK 3–0 Fatih Karagümrük — a Gaziantep FK win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 48% versus Fatih Karagümrük 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 58% | Fatih Karagümrük 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gaziantep FK surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Fatih Karagümrük have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.43 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.788 / defence 1.032 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.800 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.253. Gaziantep FK's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.43. Data: built from Gaziantep FK's last 71 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 72.

Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 25%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.26 | Draw 3.29 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Gaziantep FK at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gaziantep FK 50% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 50% (last 10 away games).

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