Gaziantep FK 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gaziantep FK face Fatih Karagümrük.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük meet at Kalyon Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 10:30 UK time.
Current Form
Gaziantep FK's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gaziantep FK at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Gaziantep FK, 0.50 for Fatih Karagümrük — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Gaziantep FK's last 10 home games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Gaziantep FK's games and 70% of Fatih Karagümrük's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Gaziantep FK edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Gaziantep FK 2–0 Fatih Karagümrük — a Gaziantep FK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 58% versus Fatih Karagümrük 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 67% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.89 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.959 / defence 1.170 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.811 / defence 1.465. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.224. Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating of 1.465 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gaziantep FK's projected output up. Data: built from Gaziantep FK's last 60 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 24.
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 51% | Draw 29% | Fatih Karagümrük 20%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.96 | Draw 3.49 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.96. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gaziantep FK at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Gaziantep FK's last 10 home games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gaziantep FK 70% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 25 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 51% | Draw 29% | Fatih Karagümrük 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Gaziantep FK 1.89 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.959 / def 1.170 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.811 / def 1.465 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Fatih Karagümrük xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük FAQs
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 25) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 51% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gaziantep FK's attack at 0.96x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.81x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Gaziantep FK's last 60 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.49
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
3.05
1.16
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
3%
32.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.16 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 7W 8D 9L from 24 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 17L across 24 games — 0.54 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gaziantep FK by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 4W 3D 5L from their last 12 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 1W 1D 10L across their last 12 away games, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 0.88 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Gaziantep FK (Home) vs Fatih Karagümrük (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük Form FAQs
What form are Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 games (1.21 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 4D 17L in their last 24 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.25 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won Gaziantep FK 0-3 Fatih Karagümrük on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Gaziantep FK
2
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Gaziantep FK have won 4, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Gaziantep FK 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Gaziantep FK, 67% for Fatih Karagümrük — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Gaziantep FK and 75% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Fatih Karagümrük Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Gaziantep FK's games and 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 75% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 83% of Fatih Karagümrük's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, as Gaziantep FK and Fatih Karagümrük drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.89 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.16 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.81 / defence 1.47, drawn from 60/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 51% | Draw 29% | Fatih Karagümrük 20%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 67%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.