🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Gaziantep FK at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 14 as Gaziantep FK welcome Eyüpspor to Kalyon Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Kalyon Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kalyon Stadyumu this season.

Eyüpspor — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Gaziantep FK are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gaziantep FK, 1 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2025, ended 3–1 with Gaziantep FK winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Gaziantep FK trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Eyüpspor trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 55% versus Eyüpspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 61% | Eyüpspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.42 xG and Eyüpspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.146 / defence 1.224 | Eyüpspor attack 0.597 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.336. Data: 49 Gaziantep FK games / 49 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 45% | Draw 31% | Eyüpspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Eyüpspor 4.17. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 60% | Eyüpspor 20% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights