Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Gaziantep FK face Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Başakşehir travel to Gaziantep Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Başakşehir — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Başakşehir have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the 10 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Gaziantep FK.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 10 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2026, ended Gaziantep FK 1–2 Başakşehir — a Başakşehir win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Başakşehir have won 8 of 10 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Başakşehir trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 58% versus Başakşehir 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 62% | Başakşehir 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 0.97 xG and Başakşehir 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.617 / defence 1.267 | Başakşehir attack 0.816 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.317. Gaziantep FK's attack rating of 0.617 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Gaziantep FK's defence rating of 1.267 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Başakşehir's projected output up. Data: built from Gaziantep FK's last 45 games and Başakşehir's last 45.
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 27% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 46%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.73 | Draw 3.64 | Başakşehir 2.19. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 10 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gaziantep FK 50% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 25 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 27% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Gaziantep FK 0.97 / Başakşehir 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.617 / def 1.267 | Başakşehir attack 0.816 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Başakşehir xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 25) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 27% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.62) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gaziantep FK's last 45 games and Başakşehir's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
27%
3.73
27%
3.64
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.33
1.36
Başakşehir xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
7%
14.53
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.36 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 11W 12D 22L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 21W 11D 13L from 45 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gaziantep FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gaziantep FK have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 22 home games (5W 7D 10L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 9W 4D 9L from their last 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.71 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
Gaziantep FK (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 11W 12D 22L in their last 45 games (1.00 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 21W 11D 13L in their last 45 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.00 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Dec 2025, when Başakşehir won Başakşehir 5-1 Gaziantep FK.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
8
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Başakşehir have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Başakşehir 2-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Başakşehir see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 64%, Başakşehir 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Gaziantep FK and 64% for Başakşehir. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 32%; Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 27% of games; Başakşehir in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Gaziantep FK's games and 50% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 64% of Başakşehir's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 59% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.