Gaziantep FK 1-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gaziantep FK face Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Başakşehir travel to Gaziantep Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Başakşehir — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gaziantep FK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Başakşehir in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Başakşehir have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Gaziantep FK's 2 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2025, ended 1–5 with Başakşehir winning.
It is worth noting that Başakşehir have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Başakşehir trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 59% versus Başakşehir 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 62% | Başakşehir 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.20 xG and Başakşehir 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.885 / defence 1.094 | Başakşehir attack 1.045 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.136. Data: 69 Gaziantep FK games / 69 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 31% | Draw 33% | Başakşehir 36%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Başakşehir 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 70% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 31% | Draw 33% | Başakşehir 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.20 / Başakşehir 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.885 / def 1.094 | Başakşehir attack 1.045 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Başakşehir xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 31% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Record (9 meetings): Gaziantep FK 2W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 6W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.89) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
31%
3.23
33%
3.00
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.50
1.30
Başakşehir xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
8%
11.82
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.30 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 21W 19D 29L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 31W 15D 23L from 69 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 1.19 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gaziantep FK have posted 1.59 PPG from 34 outings (15W 9D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 14W 5D 15L from 34 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.68 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 21W 19D 29L in their last 69 games (1.19 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 31W 15D 23L in their last 69 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Başakşehir away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.59 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2025, when Başakşehir won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
7
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Başakşehir have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-2 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 53%, Başakşehir 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gaziantep FK) and 59% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 26% of games; Başakşehir in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 53% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 59% of Başakşehir's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Gaziantep FK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Gaziantep FK 1-2 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.20 xG and Başakşehir 1.30 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Başakşehir attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 31% | Draw 33% | Başakşehir 36%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 62%, Başakşehir 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.19 PPG, Başakşehir 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.