🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Gaziantep FK host Alanyaspor at Kalyon Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Gaziantep FK — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Gaziantep FK's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Kalyon Stadyumu this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alanyaspor's away record: 0W 8D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Gaziantep FK) versus 1.00 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Alanyaspor have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Gaziantep FK.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Alanyaspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Gaziantep FK trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Alanyaspor trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 60% versus Alanyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 62% | Alanyaspor 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.37 xG and Alanyaspor 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.925 / defence 1.165 | Alanyaspor attack 1.084 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.175. Data: 63 Gaziantep FK games / 63 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 33% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Alanyaspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 80% | Alanyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights