Göztepe vs Trabzonspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Göztepe face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Göztepe versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Monday 30 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Göztepe have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's home record at : 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Trabzonspor (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Trabzonspor are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Göztepe have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Trabzonspor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Göztepe 1W, Trabzonspor 3W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Göztepe — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 50% versus Trabzonspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 50% | Trabzonspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.21 xG and Trabzonspor 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.950 / defence 1.301 | Trabzonspor attack 1.085 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Data: 42 Göztepe games / 41 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 28% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 48%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Trabzonspor 2.08. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 60% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: • Kick-off: Monday 30 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 28% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Göztepe 1.21 / Trabzonspor 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.950 / def 1.301 | Trabzonspor attack 1.085 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Trabzonspor xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Trabzonspor is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Monday 30 November 2026.
What competition is Göztepe vs Trabzonspor part of?
Göztepe vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 28% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Göztepe and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Trabzonspor?
Record (6 meetings): Göztepe 1W | Draws 2 | Trabzonspor 3W.
What form are Göztepe and Trabzonspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (0.95) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.08x) against Göztepe's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
28%
3.62
24%
4.15
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.88
1.68
Trabzonspor xG
3.62
28%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
5%
19.36
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.68 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Göztepe come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 16D 10L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 2.02 PPG from 42 outings (25W 10D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Göztepe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Göztepe's home form reads 8W 8D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 1.85 points per game from 20 outings (11W 4D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Göztepe are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.88 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 62%.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 16W 16D 10L in their last 42 games (1.52 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 25W 10D 7L in their last 42 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.60 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Göztepe
2
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Trabzonspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 1, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 50%, Trabzonspor 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Göztepe) and 65% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Göztepe's games and 70% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Göztepe's matches and 65% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Göztepe and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.