🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Göztepe at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 6 as Göztepe welcome Rizespor to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Göztepe at this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Göztepe are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rizespor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Rizespor's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Göztepe at 1.30 PPG versus Rizespor's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 3, Rizespor 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 5.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 3–1 with Göztepe winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Göztepe in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Rizespor in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 44% versus Rizespor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 41% | Rizespor 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.75 xG and Rizespor 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.996 / defence 1.011 | Rizespor attack 0.979 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Göztepe games / 34 Rizespor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Göztepe 50% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 23%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Rizespor 4.35. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 60% | Rizespor 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights