Göztepe vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 15 as Göztepe welcome Konyaspor to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe at this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Göztepe are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Göztepe) versus 1.00 (Konyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Göztepe register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Konyaspor in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 1, Konyaspor 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Göztepe trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Konyaspor trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 46% versus Konyaspor 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 43% | Konyaspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.65 xG and Konyaspor 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.904 / defence 0.981 | Konyaspor attack 1.096 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Göztepe games / 37 Konyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 46% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 3.33. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 60% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 46% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Göztepe 1.65 / Konyaspor 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.904 / def 0.981 | Konyaspor attack 1.096 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Konyaspor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Konyaspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Konyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026.
What competition is Göztepe vs Konyaspor part of?
Göztepe vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 46% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Göztepe and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Konyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Göztepe 1W | Draws 2 | Konyaspor 3W.
What form are Göztepe and Konyaspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
46%
2.20
24%
4.15
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.96
1.31
Konyaspor xG
2.20
46%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
6%
17.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.31 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe come into this having played 37 games, going 14W 14D 9L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.08 PPG from 37 outings (10W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Göztepe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Göztepe's home form reads 8W 7D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.89 points per game from 18 outings (4W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.24 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 65%.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 14W 14D 9L in their last 37 games (1.51 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 10W 10D 17L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Konyaspor away?
Göztepe's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.72 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Konyaspor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when Konyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Göztepe
2
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Konyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 1, Konyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Konyaspor 0-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 44%, Konyaspor 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Göztepe) and 67% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Göztepe have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Göztepe's games and 78% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Göztepe's matches and 67% of Konyaspor's.
Do Göztepe and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.