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Poisson rates Göztepe at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa encounter.

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Full Analysis

plays host to Göztepe versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Göztepe have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Göztepe's home record at : 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Göztepe are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Göztepe have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kasımpaşa in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across 6 previous meetings, Göztepe are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Göztepe and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading & In-Play

Göztepe — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 44% versus Kasımpaşa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 41% | Kasımpaşa 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.81 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.997 / defence 1.010 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.018 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.144. Data: 34 Göztepe games / 34 Kasımpaşa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Göztepe 50% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 23%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Kasımpaşa 4.35. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 60% | Kasımpaşa 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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