Göztepe 5-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Göztepe face Kasımpaşa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu plays host to Göztepe versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig (matchday 19). Kick-off: Monday 13 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Göztepe have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Göztepe's home record over their last 8 home games: 7W 1D 0L (2.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from their last 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Göztepe are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Kasımpaşa have posted 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2022, ended Göztepe 2–3 Kasımpaşa — a Kasımpaşa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Göztepe — key trading statistics (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 65% and Kasımpaşa 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 65% | Kasımpaşa 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Göztepe surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Kasımpaşa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.69 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.223 / defence 0.897 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.227 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.205. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack rating of 1.227, which lifts their away xG to 1.33. Data: built from Göztepe's last 17 games and Kasımpaşa's last 55.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 44% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 28%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.26 | Draw 3.66 | Kasımpaşa 3.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Göztepe's last 8 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Göztepe 50% (last 8 home games) | Kasımpaşa 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 19 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 13 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 44% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Göztepe 1.69 / Kasımpaşa 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.223 / def 0.897 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.227 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Kasımpaşa xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 13 January 2025 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Göztepe 5 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 19) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 44% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Göztepe and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (1.22) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.23x) against Göztepe's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Göztepe's last 17 games and Kasımpaşa's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.66
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Göztepe xG
Total xG
3.02
1.33
Kasımpaşa xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
5%
19.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.33 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Göztepe come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 4D 5L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (4W 9D 4L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five.
Göztepe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Göztepe's home form reads 7W 1D 0L across their last 8 home games, a 2.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 1.75 points per game from their last 8 away games (3W 5D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.24 PPG overall record — Kasımpaşa travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Göztepe are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.41 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Kasımpaşa in 65%.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Göztepe (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Göztepe
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Göztepe and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 9D 4L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Göztepe's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.75 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Göztepe won Göztepe 5-0 Kasımpaşa on 13 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Göztepe
1
Draws
1
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Göztepe have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Göztepe 3-3 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Kasımpaşa?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 50%, Kasımpaşa 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Göztepe and 62% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Göztepe vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Göztepe and Kasımpaşa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Göztepe's games and 75% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Göztepe and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Göztepe's matches and 62% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Göztepe and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Göztepe's recent matches and 88% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Göztepe run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Kasımpaşa 5-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.69 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.33 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.22 / defence 0.90 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.23 / defence 0.87, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 44% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 28%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 65%, Kasımpaşa 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.