Göztepe 2-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Göztepe face Gaziantep FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Göztepe welcome Gaziantep FK to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Göztepe stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Göztepe have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Göztepe are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Gaziantep FK have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Göztepe 1.10 PPG, Gaziantep FK 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Göztepe's games and 70% of Gaziantep FK's (from Göztepe's last 10 home games and Gaziantep FK's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Göztepe have won 2, Gaziantep FK 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Göztepe 1–0 Gaziantep FK — a Göztepe win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Göztepe in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 54% versus Gaziantep FK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 46% | Gaziantep FK 62%). Note also that Gaziantep FK surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Göztepe recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.84 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.013 / defence 1.083 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.977 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Gaziantep FK's defence rating of 1.239 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Göztepe's projected output up. Data: built from Göztepe's last 68 games and Gaziantep FK's last 68.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 50% | Draw 29% | Gaziantep FK 21%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.01 | Draw 3.44 | Gaziantep FK 4.74. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Göztepe's last 10 home games and Gaziantep FK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Göztepe 60% (last 10 home games) | Gaziantep FK 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 33 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 50% | Draw 29% | Gaziantep FK 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Göztepe 1.84 / Gaziantep FK 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.013 / def 1.083 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.977 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Gaziantep FK xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK FAQs
What time does Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK?
Göztepe 2 - 1 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 33) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 50% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Göztepe and Gaziantep FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Göztepe's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Göztepe's last 68 games and Gaziantep FK's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
50%
2.01
29%
3.44
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Göztepe xG
Total xG
3.01
1.17
Gaziantep FK xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
3%
29.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.17 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Göztepe's recent record stands at 26W 24D 18L from 68 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five.
Gaziantep FK, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 28L across 68 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Göztepe on 1.50 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Göztepe have managed 17W 13D 4L from their last 34 home games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gaziantep FK's away record stands at 6W 10D 18L across their last 34 away games, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Göztepe are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.26 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Current Season
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
Göztepe (Home) vs Gaziantep FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Göztepe
Current Season
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
❓ Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK Form FAQs
What form are Göztepe and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 26W 24D 18L in their last 68 games (1.50 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 21W 19D 28L in their last 68 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Göztepe's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.88 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Göztepe's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Göztepe
2
Draws
2
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Gaziantep FK?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Göztepe have won 3, Gaziantep FK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Göztepe 2-4 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Gaziantep FK?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 50%, Gaziantep FK 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Göztepe) and 71% (Gaziantep FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Gaziantep FK in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Göztepe and Gaziantep FK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Göztepe's games and 65% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Göztepe and Gaziantep FK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Göztepe's matches and 71% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Göztepe and Gaziantep FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Göztepe's recent matches and 65% of Gaziantep FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Gaziantep FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Gaziantep FK 2-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.84 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.17 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.98 / defence 1.24, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 50% | Draw 29% | Gaziantep FK 21%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 46%, Gaziantep FK 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.50 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.