Göztepe 2-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 2 as Göztepe welcome Fenerbahçe to Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Göztepe — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Fenerbahçe's 2.60 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Göztepe's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Göztepe, 1 for Fenerbahçe and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 0.99 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.148 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.234. Data: 1 Göztepe games / 39 Fenerbahçe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 21% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 50%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | Fenerbahçe 2.00. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 21% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Göztepe 0.99 / Fenerbahçe 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.148 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Fenerbahçe xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Göztepe 2 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı.
What competition is Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 21% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Göztepe and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Fenerbahçe?
Record (2 meetings): Göztepe 0W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 1W.
What form are Göztepe and Fenerbahçe in?
Göztepe (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (0.86) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
21%
4.79
29%
3.44
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.62
1.63
Fenerbahçe xG
4.79
21%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
4%
24.41
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.63 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Göztepe heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 0%.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Göztepe or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Fenerbahçe runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Göztepe's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Göztepe
4
Draws
2
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Fenerbahçe?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Göztepe's recent matches and 0% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Göztepe's recent games and 0% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe and Fenerbahçe finished level at 2-2 at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 0.99 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.63 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.15 / defence 0.83, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 21% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 50%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 0%, Fenerbahçe 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Göztepe scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.