Göztepe 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Göztepe at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Fatih Karagümrük travel to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu to take on Göztepe. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Göztepe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Göztepe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Göztepe trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 37% versus Fatih Karagümrük 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Göztepe 32% | Fatih Karagümrük 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.82 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.089 / defence 0.701 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.665 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.301. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.701 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Göztepe games / 19 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 64% | Draw 28% | Fatih Karagümrük 9%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.56 | Draw 3.57 | Fatih Karagümrük 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (64%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 64% | Draw 28% | Fatih Karagümrük 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 41% | xG Göztepe 1.82 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.089 / def 0.701 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.665 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Fatih Karagümrük xG
41%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Göztepe 2 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 64% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 9% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (3 meetings): Göztepe 1W | Draws 0 | Fatih Karagümrük 2W.
What form are Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Göztepe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Göztepe's attack at 1.09x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
64%
1.57
28%
3.63
9%
11.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.42
0.61
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.57
64%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
11.35
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
35%
2.88
1%
69.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 9.8 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.61 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Göztepe come into this having played 19 games, going 10W 6D 3L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 0.47 PPG from 19 outings (2W 3D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.42 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Göztepe's home form reads 5W 3D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 0.44 points per game from 9 outings (1W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Göztepe are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 0.84 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 10W 6D 3L in their last 19 games (1.89 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 3D 14L in their last 19 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Göztepe's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.00 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Göztepe have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Göztepe's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Göztepe
0
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 4 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Göztepe 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Göztepe see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 33%, Fatih Karagümrük 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Göztepe) and 67% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Göztepe's recent matches and 56% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Göztepe's recent games and 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Fatih Karagümrük 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.82 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.61 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.09 / defence 0.70 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.67 / defence 1.29, drawn from 55/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 64% | Draw 28% | Fatih Karagümrük 9%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 32%, Fatih Karagümrük 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.