Göztepe 0-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Göztepe at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu plays host to Göztepe versus Eyüpspor in Süper Lig (matchday 24). Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Göztepe have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Göztepe's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Eyüpspor's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Göztepe's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Eyüpspor edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Göztepe 0–0 Eyüpspor — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Göztepe half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 52% versus Eyüpspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 46% | Eyüpspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.58 xG and Eyüpspor 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.951 / defence 0.702 | Eyüpspor attack 0.919 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.264. Eyüpspor's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Göztepe's projected output up. Göztepe have a tight defence (rating 0.702), which is pulling Eyüpspor's projected output down. Data: built from Göztepe's last 59 games and Eyüpspor's last 59.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 52% | Draw 32% | Eyüpspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.92 | Draw 3.11 | Eyüpspor 6.32. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Göztepe's last 10 home games and Eyüpspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Göztepe 40% (last 10 home games) | Eyüpspor 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 24 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 52% | Draw 32% | Eyüpspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Göztepe 1.58 / Eyüpspor 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.951 / def 0.702 | Eyüpspor attack 0.919 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Eyüpspor xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Göztepe vs Eyüpspor FAQs
What time does Göztepe vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Göztepe 0 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Eyüpspor part of?
Göztepe vs Eyüpspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 24) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 52% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 16% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Göztepe and Eyüpspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Göztepe vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.92x) against Göztepe's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from Göztepe's last 59 games and Eyüpspor's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
52%
1.92
32%
3.11
16%
6.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.40
0.82
Eyüpspor xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
6.32
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
3%
30.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Göztepe vs Eyüpspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.82 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Göztepe's recent record stands at 24W 19D 16L from 59 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 25L across 59 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Göztepe against 1.25 for Eyüpspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Göztepe have managed 16W 10D 3L from their last 29 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 7W 7D 15L across their last 29 away games, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Göztepe are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.20 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
Göztepe (Home) vs Eyüpspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Göztepe
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Göztepe vs Eyüpspor Form FAQs
What form are Göztepe and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 24W 19D 16L in their last 59 games (1.54 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 20W 14D 25L in their last 59 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Eyüpspor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.00 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 12 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Göztepe won Eyüpspor 0-4 Göztepe on 12 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Göztepe
3
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Göztepe vs Eyüpspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Eyüpspor?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Göztepe have won 1, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Eyüpspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 October 2026: Eyüpspor 0-4 Göztepe.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 48%, Eyüpspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Göztepe) and 45% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Eyüpspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Göztepe vs Eyüpspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Göztepe and Eyüpspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Göztepe's recent matches and 52% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Göztepe and Eyüpspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Göztepe's recent games and 45% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Eyüpspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Göztepe's recent matches and 62% of Eyüpspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Göztepe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, as Göztepe and Eyüpspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.58 xG and Eyüpspor 0.82 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Göztepe fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Eyüpspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.95 / defence 0.70 against Eyüpspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 52% | Draw 32% | Eyüpspor 16%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 46%, Eyüpspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.54 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.