Göztepe 2-0 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Bodrum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Bodrum FK travel to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu to take on Göztepe. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Göztepe — All Games: 0W 3D 0L from 3 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Bodrum FK have recorded 1W 0D 2L from 3 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bodrum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Göztepe 1.00 PPG, Bodrum FK 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Göztepe register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Bodrum FK in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Göztepe in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bodrum FK in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 67% and Bodrum FK 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 33% | Bodrum FK 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 2.13 xG and Bodrum FK 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.997 / defence 1.122 | Bodrum FK attack 0.817 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.298. Bodrum FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Göztepe games / 3 Bodrum FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 58% | Draw 23% | Bodrum FK 20%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Bodrum FK 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 67% | Bodrum FK 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 58% | Draw 23% | Bodrum FK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Göztepe 2.13 / Bodrum FK 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.997 / def 1.122 | Bodrum FK attack 0.817 / def 1.427 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Bodrum FK xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Göztepe vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Bodrum FK?
Göztepe 2 - 0 Bodrum FK.
Where is Göztepe vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Bodrum FK part of?
Göztepe vs Bodrum FK is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 58% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Göztepe and Bodrum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Bodrum FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Göztepe and Bodrum FK in?
Göztepe (all comps): 0W-3D-0L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D. Bodrum FK (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Göztepe's attack at 1.00x the league average against Bodrum FK's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodrum FK's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.42
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Göztepe xG
Total xG
3.32
1.19
Bodrum FK xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
12%
8.42
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
2%
43.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.19 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Bodrum FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 3D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bodrum FK sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bodrum FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Göztepe on 1.00 PPG, Bodrum FK on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Bodrum FK in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Bodrum FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Göztepe or Bodrum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bodrum FK in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Bodrum FK runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Göztepe
1
Draws
0
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Bodrum FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 1, Bodrum FK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Bodrum FK last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2025, when Bodrum FK 0-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Bodrum FK?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Göztepe at 67%, Bodrum FK at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Göztepe) and 67% (Bodrum FK).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Göztepe have failed to score in 33% of games; Bodrum FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Bodrum FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Göztepe's games and 67% of Bodrum FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Bodrum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Göztepe's recent games and 67% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Bodrum FK tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodrum FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bodrum FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Bodrum FK 2-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 2.13 xG and Bodrum FK 1.19 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bodrum FK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Bodrum FK attack 0.82 / defence 1.43, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 58% | Draw 23% | Bodrum FK 20%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 33%, Bodrum FK 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.00 PPG, Bodrum FK 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bodrum FK managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.