Göztepe 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 36%, yet in-form Beşiktaş provide a compelling counter-argument — this Göztepe vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Beşiktaş travel to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu to take on Göztepe. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 April 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Göztepe have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Göztepe are significantly better at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beşiktaş are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 1, Beşiktaş 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 4–2 with Göztepe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Göztepe in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 59% and Beşiktaş 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 52% | Beşiktaş 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.15 xG and Beşiktaş 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.002 / defence 0.969 | Beşiktaş attack 0.985 / defence 0.725. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.167. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.725 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 29 Göztepe games / 67 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 36% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 35%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Beşiktaş 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Göztepe 50% | Beşiktaş 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 36% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Göztepe 1.15 / Beşiktaş 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.002 / def 0.969 | Beşiktaş attack 0.985 / def 0.725 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Beşiktaş xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Göztepe vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Göztepe 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Göztepe vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Beşiktaş part of?
Göztepe vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 36% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Göztepe and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Beşiktaş?
Record (3 meetings): Göztepe 1W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are Göztepe and Beşiktaş in?
Göztepe (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Göztepe's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
36%
2.74
29%
3.46
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.26
1.11
Beşiktaş xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
11%
9.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.11 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Göztepe come into this having played 29 games, going 10W 9D 10L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.66 PPG from 29 outings (13W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Göztepe on 1.34 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Göztepe's home form reads 9W 4D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.36 points per game from 14 outings (4W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Göztepe are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.45 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 10W 9D 10L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 13W 9D 7L in their last 29 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Beşiktaş away?
Göztepe's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.21 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2026, when Beşiktaş won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Göztepe
1
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Beşiktaş?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 50%, Beşiktaş 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Göztepe) and 29% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Göztepe's games and 64% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Göztepe's recent games and 29% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe and Beşiktaş finished level at 1-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.15 xG and Beşiktaş 1.11 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against Beşiktaş attack 0.98 / defence 0.72, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 36% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 35%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 52%, Beşiktaş 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.34 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.