Göztepe vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 46%, yet in-form Amed provide a compelling counter-argument — this Göztepe vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 33 as Göztepe welcome Amed to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Göztepe have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amed stand at 2W 1D 1L from 4 Süper Lig matches — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W L W D. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.25. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Amed's 1.75 PPG return is 0.75 points per game ahead of Göztepe's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Göztepe trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Amed trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 75% and Amed 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Göztepe 75% | Amed 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.77 xG and Amed 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.917 / defence 1.275 | Amed attack 0.890 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.230. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Göztepe games / 4 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 46% | Draw 23% | Amed 30%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Amed 3.33. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Göztepe at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amed (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 60% | Amed 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 46% | Draw 23% | Amed 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Göztepe 1.77 / Amed 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.917 / def 1.275 | Amed attack 0.890 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Amed xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Amed kick off?
Göztepe vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 May 2027.
What competition is Göztepe vs Amed part of?
Göztepe vs Amed is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 46% chance of winning, Amed a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Göztepe and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Amed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Göztepe and Amed in?
Göztepe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Amed (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Amed's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Amed's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
46%
2.16
23%
4.32
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Göztepe xG
Total xG
3.16
1.40
Amed xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
5%
19.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.40 for Amed, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Amed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Göztepe have picked up 0.25 PPG on a 0W 1D 3L record — D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amed's form line: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Amed are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Göztepe.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Amed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Amed in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Amed have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 75%, Amed 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Göztepe and 75% for Amed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Amed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Göztepe's games and 50% of Amed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Göztepe's matches and 75% of Amed's.
Do Göztepe and Amed tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Amed in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.