Göztepe 2-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Göztepe at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu to face Göztepe in Süper Lig (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Göztepe (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Göztepe at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Göztepe are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Alanyaspor away from home: 0W 8D 2L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Göztepe. A 0.60 PPG lead over Alanyaspor (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Alanyaspor have the stronger record — 3 wins to Göztepe's 0, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Göztepe 0–1 Alanyaspor — a Alanyaspor win.
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Göztepe half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 52% versus Alanyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 46% | Alanyaspor 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Göztepe surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Alanyaspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Alanyaspor surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Göztepe recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.23 xG and Alanyaspor 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.877 / defence 0.666 | Alanyaspor attack 0.968 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.239. Göztepe have a tight defence (rating 0.666), which is pulling Alanyaspor's projected output down. Data: built from Göztepe's last 61 games and Alanyaspor's last 61.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 42% | Draw 37% | Alanyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.37 | Draw 2.67 | Alanyaspor 4.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), but Göztepe carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Göztepe at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Göztepe's last 10 home games and Alanyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Göztepe 30% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 26 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 42% | Draw 37% | Alanyaspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Göztepe 1.23 / Alanyaspor 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.877 / def 0.666 | Alanyaspor attack 0.968 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Alanyaspor xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Göztepe vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Göztepe vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Alanyaspor?
Göztepe 2 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Alanyaspor part of?
Göztepe vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 26) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 42% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 20% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Göztepe and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Göztepe vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.97x) against Göztepe's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Göztepe's last 61 games and Alanyaspor's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
42%
2.37
37%
2.67
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.02
0.80
Alanyaspor xG
2.37
42%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
6%
16.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Göztepe vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.80 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Göztepe have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 24W 20D 17L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Alanyaspor's form line: 17W 21D 23L from 61 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Göztepe against 1.18 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Göztepe have posted 1.97 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 11D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 12D 13L from their last 30 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Göztepe are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.13 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
Göztepe (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Göztepe
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Göztepe vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Göztepe and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 24W 20D 17L in their last 61 games (1.51 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 17W 21D 23L in their last 61 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Alanyaspor away?
Göztepe's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.97 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Göztepe
4
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Göztepe vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Alanyaspor?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Göztepe have won 0, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Alanyaspor 2-2 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 47%, Alanyaspor 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Göztepe) and 47% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Göztepe vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Göztepe and Alanyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Göztepe's games and 63% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Göztepe and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Göztepe's recent games and 47% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Göztepe's recent matches and 73% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe and Alanyaspor finished level at 2-2 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.23 xG and Alanyaspor 0.80 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.88 / defence 0.67 against Alanyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 42% | Draw 37% | Alanyaspor 20%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 46%, Alanyaspor 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.51 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.