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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Alanyaspor make the trip to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu to face Göztepe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Göztepe (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Göztepe at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Göztepe are significantly better at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Alanyaspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alanyaspor away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Göztepe against 1.60 for Alanyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Göztepe, 1 for Alanyaspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Göztepe half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 60% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 65% | Alanyaspor 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 2.05 xG and Alanyaspor 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.238 / defence 0.717 | Alanyaspor attack 0.732 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.250. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 20 Göztepe games / 58 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Göztepe 68% | Draw 22% | Alanyaspor 9%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Alanyaspor 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (68%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Göztepe at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 40% | Alanyaspor 40% BTTS from recent games.

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