Fenerbahçe 4-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Trabzonspor travel to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to take on Fenerbahçe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's home record at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fenerbahçe register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Trabzonspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Fenerbahçe have won 3, Trabzonspor 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 3–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 54% versus Trabzonspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 66% | Trabzonspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.72 xG and Trabzonspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.226 / defence 0.853 | Trabzonspor attack 1.000 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.203. Data: 65 Fenerbahçe games / 65 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 53% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Trabzonspor 4.55. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 60% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 53% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.72 / Trabzonspor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.226 / def 0.853 | Trabzonspor attack 1.000 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Trabzonspor xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Fenerbahçe 4 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 53% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor?
Record (7 meetings): Fenerbahçe 3W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 3W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.23) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
53%
1.87
24%
4.13
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.74
1.03
Trabzonspor xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
4%
24.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.03 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.52 PPG on a 51W 11D 3L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 30W 13D 22L from 65 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Trabzonspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.56 PPG from 32 outings (26W 4D 2L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 10W 8D 14L from 32 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.55 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.72 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 51W 11D 3L in their last 65 games (2.52 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 30W 13D 22L in their last 65 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Trabzonspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.56 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fenerbahçe have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Fenerbahçe won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 6, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 66%, Trabzonspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 84% for Fenerbahçe and 53% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Fenerbahçe's games and 56% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 84% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 53% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Trabzonspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Trabzonspor 4-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.72 xG and Trabzonspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.23 / defence 0.85 against Trabzonspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 53% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 22%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 66%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.81 average — above their attacking norm. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.