Fenerbahçe 1-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 83% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Fenerbahçe (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Samsunspor have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Samsunspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Fenerbahçe's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Samsunspor's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) — Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Samsunspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Fenerbahçe edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Aug 2023, ended Fenerbahçe 2–0 Samsunspor — a Fenerbahçe win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 50% versus Samsunspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 65% | Samsunspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 3.48 xG and Samsunspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.753 / defence 0.966 | Samsunspor attack 0.839 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.210. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack rating of 1.753 — their 3.48 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Samsunspor's defence rating of 1.289 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fenerbahçe's projected output up. Data: built from Fenerbahçe's last 56 games and Samsunspor's last 20.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 83% | Draw 11% | Samsunspor 6%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.21 | Draw 8.71 | Samsunspor 17.15. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (83%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 4.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (3.48 / 0.98) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 83% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.47 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fenerbahçe 70% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 21 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 83% | Draw 11% | Samsunspor 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% (Under 18%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Fenerbahçe 3.48 / Samsunspor 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.753 / def 0.966 | Samsunspor attack 0.839 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.48
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Samsunspor xG
61%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor?
Fenerbahçe 1 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 21) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 83% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 6% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fenerbahçe's attack at 1.75x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 3.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.84x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Fenerbahçe's last 56 games and Samsunspor's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 8.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 4-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
83%
1.21
11%
8.71
6%
17.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
4 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.48
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
4.47
0.98
Samsunspor xG
1.21
83%
Home win
8.71
11%
Draw
17.15
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
3%
32.62
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 3.48 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.98 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 4.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 17W 2D 1L from 20 games, a 2.65 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 11L across 20 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Samsunspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 away games, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.85 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.15 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor in 60%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 17W 2D 1L in their last 20 games (2.65 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 6W 3D 11L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Samsunspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.50 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Fenerbahçe
4
Draws
0
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have won 3, Samsunspor have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Samsunspor 0-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Fenerbahçe, 60% for Samsunspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Fenerbahçe and 50% for Samsunspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Fenerbahçe's games and 60% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 50% of Samsunspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 70% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor finished level at 1-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 3.48 xG and Samsunspor 0.98 xG, a combined 4.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fenerbahçe fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.75 / defence 0.97 against Samsunspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.29, drawn from 56/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 83% | Draw 11% | Samsunspor 6%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 83%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 65%, Samsunspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Samsunspor's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.65 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.