Fenerbahçe 3-2 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Rizespor.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fenerbahçe and Rizespor meet at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 9W 0D 1L at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
Rizespor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Fenerbahçe. A 0.80 PPG lead over Rizespor (2.50 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Fenerbahçe have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 5 meetings, with Rizespor managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 5–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 55% versus Rizespor 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 67% | Rizespor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.13 xG and Rizespor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.239 / defence 0.915 | Rizespor attack 0.821 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.253. Data: 58 Fenerbahçe games / 58 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 63% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 14%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Rizespor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fenerbahçe 50% | Rizespor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 63% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 55% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.13 / Rizespor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.239 / def 0.915 | Rizespor attack 0.821 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Rizespor xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Fenerbahçe 3 - 2 Rizespor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 63% chance of winning, Rizespor a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Rizespor?
Record (5 meetings): Fenerbahçe 5W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Rizespor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.82x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.47
14%
6.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.07
0.94
Rizespor xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
6.99
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
12%
8.41
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
2%
58.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.94 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 46W 9D 3L from 58 games, a 2.53 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 25L across 58 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 23W 3D 2L from 28 games — 2.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 7W 3D 18L across 28 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.21 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 46W 9D 3L in their last 58 games (2.53 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 22W 11D 25L in their last 58 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Rizespor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.57 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Rizespor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-6 on 22 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
0
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 7, Rizespor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Fenerbahçe 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Rizespor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 68%, Rizespor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Fenerbahçe and 64% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Rizespor in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Fenerbahçe's games and 46% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 64% of Rizespor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Rizespor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Rizespor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Rizespor 3-2 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.13 xG and Rizespor 0.94 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.24 / defence 0.92 against Rizespor attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 63% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 14%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 67%, Rizespor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.