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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Eyüpspor travel to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to take on Fenerbahçe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025, 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Fenerbahçe at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Eyüpspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.

Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 56% versus Eyüpspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 71% | Eyüpspor 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.06 xG and Eyüpspor 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.299 / defence 1.003 | Eyüpspor attack 0.715 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.249. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 71 Fenerbahçe games / 34 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 64% | Draw 20% | Eyüpspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Eyüpspor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 70% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.

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