Fenerbahçe 2-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fenerbahçe face Ankaragücü.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ankaragücü travel to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to take on Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fenerbahçe stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Ankaragücü have recorded 3W 6D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ankaragücü's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Fenerbahçe have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Ankaragücü's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Fenerbahçe hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Ankaragücü and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Fenerbahçe 1–0 Ankaragücü — a Fenerbahçe win.
The head-to-head data gives Fenerbahçe an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Fenerbahçe trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Ankaragücü trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 53% versus Ankaragücü 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 69% | Ankaragücü 48%). Note also that Ankaragücü surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Fenerbahçe recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.19 xG and Ankaragücü 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.597 / defence 0.956 | Ankaragücü attack 1.017 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.200. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack rating of 1.597 — their 2.19 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Fenerbahçe's last 58 games and Ankaragücü's last 58.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 59% | Draw 22% | Ankaragücü 18%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.68 | Draw 4.47 | Ankaragücü 5.49. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.19 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Ankaragücü's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fenerbahçe 70% (last 10 home games) | Ankaragücü 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 59% | Draw 22% | Ankaragücü 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Fenerbahçe 2.19 / Ankaragücü 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.597 / def 0.956 | Ankaragücü attack 1.017 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Ankaragücü xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü FAQs
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 59% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.60x league average) is weighed against Ankaragücü's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fenerbahçe's last 58 games and Ankaragücü's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
59%
1.68
22%
4.47
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.36
1.17
Ankaragücü xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
11%
8.94
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
2%
49.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.17 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 58 games, going 43W 8D 7L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Ankaragücü sit at 1.21 PPG from 58 outings (18W 16D 24L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Ankaragücü — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 21W 3D 4L across their last 28 home games, a 2.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Ankaragücü have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 28 away games (8W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.24 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü in 62%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
Fenerbahçe (Home) vs Ankaragücü (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü Form FAQs
What form are Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 43W 8D 7L in their last 58 games (2.36 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 18W 16D 24L in their last 58 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Ankaragücü away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.36 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Ankaragücü been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Ankaragücü in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fenerbahçe have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Oct 2022, when Fenerbahçe won Ankaragücü 0-3 Fenerbahçe.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Ankaragücü specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Fenerbahçe
0
Draws
0
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have won 4, Ankaragücü have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 January 2024: Fenerbahçe 2-1 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ankaragücü see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 57%, Ankaragücü 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Fenerbahçe and 50% for Ankaragücü. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Fenerbahçe's games and 68% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 50% of Ankaragücü's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 59% of Ankaragücü's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Ankaragücü 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Ankaragücü 2-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.19 xG and Ankaragücü 1.17 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.60 / defence 0.96 against Ankaragücü attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 59% | Draw 22% | Ankaragücü 18%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 69%, Ankaragücü 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.