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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Alanyaspor.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 8 as Fenerbahçe welcome Alanyaspor to Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Fenerbahçe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Fenerbahçe's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Alanyaspor away from home this season: 0W 7D 3L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fenerbahçe: 7 wins from 10 previous clashes against 1 for Alanyaspor, with 2 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 3–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Fenerbahçe trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

Alanyaspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fenerbahçe 62% and Alanyaspor 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 65% | Alanyaspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.82 xG and Alanyaspor 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.203 / defence 1.059 | Alanyaspor attack 0.930 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Fenerbahçe games / 34 Alanyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 52% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Alanyaspor 4.55. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 80% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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