Fenerbahçe 2-3 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Trabzonspor travel to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to take on Fenerbahçe. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's home record at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.40 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fenerbahçe register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Trabzonspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Fenerbahçe have won 1, Trabzonspor 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2023, ended 3–1 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 49% versus Trabzonspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fenerbahçe 71% | Trabzonspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.41 xG and Trabzonspor 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.724 / defence 1.016 | Trabzonspor attack 1.019 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.195. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.724 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Fenerbahçe games / 45 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 21% | Trabzonspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Trabzonspor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 60% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 21% | Trabzonspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 66% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.41 / Trabzonspor 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.724 / def 1.016 | Trabzonspor attack 1.019 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Trabzonspor xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 3 Trabzonspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 62% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor?
Record (4 meetings): Fenerbahçe 1W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.72) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 2.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.68
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.65
1.24
Trabzonspor xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
9%
11.16
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
2%
66.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.24 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.42 PPG on a 35W 4D 6L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 21W 7D 17L from 45 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Trabzonspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.50 PPG from 22 outings (18W 1D 3L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 3D 14L from 22 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.51 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.71 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Trabzonspor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 35W 4D 6L in their last 45 games (2.42 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 21W 7D 17L in their last 45 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Trabzonspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.50 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fenerbahçe have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Fenerbahçe won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 6, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 50%, Trabzonspor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Fenerbahçe and 68% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fenerbahçe's games and 68% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 68% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trabzonspor defy the odds to beat Fenerbahçe 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Fenerbahçe 2-3 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.41 xG and Trabzonspor 1.24 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.72 / defence 1.02 against Trabzonspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 21% | Trabzonspor 17%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Trabzonspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 71%, Trabzonspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.56. Form was overturned, with Trabzonspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.