Fenerbahçe 4-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Sivasspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fenerbahçe host Sivasspor at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 4 December 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fenerbahçe register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sivasspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Fenerbahçe have won 2, Sivasspor 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 3–1 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 51% versus Sivasspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 71% | Sivasspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.73 xG and Sivasspor 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.535 / defence 1.064 | Sivasspor attack 1.048 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.241. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.535 — their λ of 2.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Fenerbahçe games / 49 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 65% | Draw 18% | Sivasspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.54 | Draw 5.56 | Sivasspor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (65%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.73 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 60% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Monday 4 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 65% | Draw 18% | Sivasspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 71% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.73 / Sivasspor 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.535 / def 1.064 | Sivasspor attack 1.048 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.73
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Sivasspor xG
71%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 4 December 2023 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Fenerbahçe 4 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 65% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor?
Record (4 meetings): Fenerbahçe 2W | Draws 2 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.73. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
65%
1.53
18%
5.57
17%
5.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 1
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.73
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
4.11
1.39
Sivasspor xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.57
18%
Draw
5.94
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
7%
15.32
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
1%
91.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.73 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.39 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 36W 6D 7L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 14W 14D 21L from 49 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.19 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.42 PPG from 24 outings (19W 1D 4L).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 9W 2D 13L from 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 61%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 36W 6D 7L in their last 49 games (2.33 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 14W 14D 21L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Sivasspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.42 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fenerbahçe
3
Draws
0
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 5, Sivasspor have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Sivasspor 1-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 54%, Sivasspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Fenerbahçe and 71% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sivasspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 54% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 71% of Sivasspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Sivasspor 4-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.73 xG and Sivasspor 1.39 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.53 / defence 1.06 against Sivasspor attack 1.05 / defence 1.15, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 65% | Draw 18% | Sivasspor 17%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 71%, Sivasspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.88 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.