Fenerbahçe 1-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 83% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Fenerbahçe (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Samsunspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Fenerbahçe's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Samsunspor's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Samsunspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Samsunspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 50% versus Samsunspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 65% | Samsunspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 3.48 xG and Samsunspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.753 / defence 0.966 | Samsunspor attack 0.839 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.210. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.753 — their λ of 3.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Samsunspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Fenerbahçe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Fenerbahçe games / 20 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 83% | Draw 11% | Samsunspor 6%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.20 | Draw 9.09 | Samsunspor 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (83%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 4.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (3.48 / 0.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.47 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 70% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 83% | Draw 11% | Samsunspor 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 61% | xG Fenerbahçe 3.48 / Samsunspor 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.753 / def 0.966 | Samsunspor attack 0.839 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.48
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Samsunspor xG
61%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor?
Fenerbahçe 1 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 83% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 6% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Fenerbahçe 1W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fenerbahçe's attack at 1.75x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 3.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.84x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 56/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 8.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 4-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
83%
1.21
11%
8.71
6%
17.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
4 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.48
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
4.47
0.98
Samsunspor xG
1.21
83%
Home win
8.71
11%
Draw
17.15
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
3%
32.62
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 3.48 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.98 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 4.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 17W 2D 1L from 20 games, a 2.65 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 11L across 20 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Samsunspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 8W 1D 1L from 10 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 1W 1D 8L across 10 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.85 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.15 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor in 60%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 17W 2D 1L in their last 20 games (2.65 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 6W 3D 11L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Samsunspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.50 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fenerbahçe
4
Draws
0
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 2, Samsunspor have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-2 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Fenerbahçe, 60% for Samsunspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Fenerbahçe and 50% for Samsunspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Fenerbahçe's games and 60% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 50% of Samsunspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor finished level at 1-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 3.48 xG and Samsunspor 0.98 xG, a combined 4.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fenerbahçe fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.75 / defence 0.97 against Samsunspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.29, drawn from 56/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 83% | Draw 11% | Samsunspor 6%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 83%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 65%, Samsunspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Samsunspor's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.65 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.