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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Rizespor.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Fenerbahçe and Rizespor meet at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 9W 0D 1L at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.

Rizespor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rizespor's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form ledger tips toward Fenerbahçe. A 0.80 PPG lead over Rizespor (2.50 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Fenerbahçe have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 5 meetings, with Rizespor managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 5–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 55% versus Rizespor 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 67% | Rizespor 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.13 xG and Rizespor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.239 / defence 0.915 | Rizespor attack 0.821 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.253. Data: 58 Fenerbahçe games / 58 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 63% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 14%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Rizespor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fenerbahçe 50% | Rizespor 40%.

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