Fenerbahçe 4-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Fenerbahçe are significantly better at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Fenerbahçe against 1.60 for Konyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fenerbahçe register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Konyaspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Fenerbahçe, who have won 7 of the last 9 meetings against Konyaspor — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fenerbahçe 63% and Konyaspor 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 66% | Konyaspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.90 xG and Konyaspor 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.198 / defence 1.039 | Konyaspor attack 1.032 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.188. Data: 35 Fenerbahçe games / 35 Konyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 51% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Konyaspor 4.17. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 80% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 51% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.90 / Konyaspor 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.198 / def 1.039 | Konyaspor attack 1.032 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Konyaspor xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Fenerbahçe 4 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 51% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor?
Record (9 meetings): Fenerbahçe 7W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.03x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.01
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.17
1.27
Konyaspor xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
4%
27.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.27 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 21W 11D 3L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Konyaspor's form line: 10W 10D 15L from 35 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.29 PPG from 17 outings (11W 6D 0L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 4W 4D 9L from 17 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.23 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Konyaspor in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 21W 11D 3L in their last 35 games (2.11 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Konyaspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.29 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 7-1 on 10 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 8, Konyaspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Fenerbahçe 4-2 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Fenerbahçe, 76% for Konyaspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Fenerbahçe and 65% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Fenerbahçe's games and 76% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 65% of Konyaspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Konyaspor 4-2 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.90 xG and Konyaspor 1.27 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.20 / defence 1.04 against Konyaspor attack 1.03 / defence 1.05, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 51% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 24%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 66%, Konyaspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Konyaspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.