Fenerbahçe 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Fatih Karagümrük.
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Full Analysis
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi plays host to Fenerbahçe versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fenerbahçe have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Fenerbahçe's favour (2.50 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fatih Karagümrük in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Fenerbahçe 2W, Fatih Karagümrük 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 50% versus Fatih Karagümrük 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fenerbahçe 71% | Fatih Karagümrük 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.37 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.668 / defence 1.136 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.944 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.188. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.668 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Fenerbahçe games / 48 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 61% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 18%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Fatih Karagümrük 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 61% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 66% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.37 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.668 / def 1.136 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.944 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Fatih Karagümrük xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 61% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (4 meetings): Fenerbahçe 2W | Draws 2 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.67) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.94x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.71
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.65
1.27
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
9%
10.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
2%
59.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.27 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 35W 6D 7L from 48 games, a 2.31 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 15L across 48 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 18W 1D 4L from 23 games — 2.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 7W 9D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.46 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.83 scored and 1.52 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük in 62%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 35W 6D 7L in their last 48 games (2.31 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 16W 17D 15L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.39 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 5, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 52%, Fatih Karagümrük 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Fenerbahçe and 61% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Fenerbahçe's games and 65% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 61% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Fatih Karagümrük 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.37 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.67 / defence 1.14 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 61% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 18%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 71%, Fatih Karagümrük 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.