Fenerbahçe 1-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Fenerbahçe (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Fenerbahçe have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Fenerbahçe against 2.30 for Beşiktaş. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Beşiktaş in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fenerbahçe lead 3W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 3–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fenerbahçe 64% and Beşiktaş 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 67% | Beşiktaş 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.75 xG and Beşiktaş 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.458 / defence 1.015 | Beşiktaş attack 1.331 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.161. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.458 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Fenerbahçe games / 63 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 40% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 32%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Beşiktaş 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 80% | Beşiktaş 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 40% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 68% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.75 / Beşiktaş 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.458 / def 1.015 | Beşiktaş attack 1.331 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Beşiktaş xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Fenerbahçe 1 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 40% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş?
Record (9 meetings): Fenerbahçe 3W | Draws 3 | Beşiktaş 3W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.46) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.33x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.64
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.32
1.57
Beşiktaş xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
6%
17.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.57 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 63 games, going 43W 15D 5L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.81 PPG from 63 outings (32W 18D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 23W 6D 2L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.68 points per game from 31 outings (13W 13D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.71 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Beşiktaş in 62%.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 43W 15D 5L in their last 63 games (2.29 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 32W 18D 13L in their last 63 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Beşiktaş away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.42 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fenerbahçe
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 4, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 68%, Beşiktaş 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Fenerbahçe) and 36% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Fenerbahçe's games and 55% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Fenerbahçe's recent games and 36% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Beşiktaş 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Beşiktaş 1-0 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.75 xG and Beşiktaş 1.57 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beşiktaş landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.46 / defence 1.01 against Beşiktaş attack 1.33 / defence 0.88, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 40% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 32%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 67%, Beşiktaş 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.