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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Başakşehir.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 16 as Fenerbahçe welcome Başakşehir to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 9W 0D 1L at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Fenerbahçe are significantly better at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.

Başakşehir — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Fenerbahçe, 2 for Başakşehir and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Fenerbahçe in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 52% versus Başakşehir 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 65% | Başakşehir 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.12 xG and Başakşehir 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.247 / defence 0.826 | Başakşehir attack 0.940 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.177. Data: 52 Fenerbahçe games / 52 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 64% | Draw 22% | Başakşehir 14%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Başakşehir 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fenerbahçe 40% | Başakşehir 50%.

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