Fenerbahçe 3-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fenerbahçe face Antalyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antalyaspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Fenerbahçe (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Fenerbahçe at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antalyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Antalyaspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Fenerbahçe's favour (2.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Antalyaspor managing 0 and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 May 2023, ended Fenerbahçe 2–0 Antalyaspor — a Fenerbahçe win.
The head-to-head data gives Fenerbahçe an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Fenerbahçe — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 54% versus Antalyaspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 72% | Antalyaspor 44%). Note also that Antalyaspor surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Fenerbahçe recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.59 xG and Antalyaspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.239 / defence 0.996 | Antalyaspor attack 0.771 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.341. Antalyaspor's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Fenerbahçe's last 39 games and Antalyaspor's last 40.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Antalyaspor 4.73. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though recent form (Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Antalyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fenerbahçe 60% (last 10 home games) | Antalyaspor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 5 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Fenerbahçe 1.59 / Antalyaspor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.239 / def 0.996 | Antalyaspor attack 0.771 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Antalyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor FAQs
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Fenerbahçe 3 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 5) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 47% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.24) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.77x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Fenerbahçe's last 39 games and Antalyaspor's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
47%
2.13
32%
3.12
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.62
1.03
Antalyaspor xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
4%
23.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.03 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.28 PPG on a 28W 5D 6L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Antalyaspor's form line: 11W 11D 17L from 39 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antalyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.32 PPG from their last 19 home games (14W 2D 3L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 6D 11L from their last 19 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.26 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Fenerbahçe (Home) vs Antalyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 28W 5D 6L in their last 39 games (2.28 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 11W 11D 17L in their last 39 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Antalyaspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.32 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won Fenerbahçe 3-0 Antalyaspor on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
0
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have won 8, Antalyaspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Antalyaspor 2-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 72% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 53%, Antalyaspor 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 79% (Fenerbahçe) and 26% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 42% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 79% of Fenerbahçe's recent games and 26% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 68% of Antalyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Antalyaspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Antalyaspor 3-2 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.59 xG and Antalyaspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antalyaspor outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.24 / defence 1.00 against Antalyaspor attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 21%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 72%, Antalyaspor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.