Fenerbahçe 3-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Antalyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antalyaspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Fenerbahçe (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antalyaspor's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Fenerbahçe's favour (2.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2023, ended 2–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The historical record gives Fenerbahçe a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fenerbahçe — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 54% versus Antalyaspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 72% | Antalyaspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.59 xG and Antalyaspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.239 / defence 0.996 | Antalyaspor attack 0.771 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.341. Data: 39 Fenerbahçe games / 40 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Antalyaspor 4.76. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 60% | Antalyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.59 / Antalyaspor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.239 / def 0.996 | Antalyaspor attack 0.771 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Antalyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Fenerbahçe 3 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 47% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Fenerbahçe 3W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.24) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.77x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
47%
2.13
32%
3.12
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.62
1.03
Antalyaspor xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
4%
23.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.03 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.28 PPG on a 28W 5D 6L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Antalyaspor's form line: 11W 11D 17L from 39 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antalyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.32 PPG from 19 outings (14W 2D 3L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 6D 11L from 19 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.26 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 28W 5D 6L in their last 39 games (2.28 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 11W 11D 17L in their last 39 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Antalyaspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.32 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
0
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 8, Antalyaspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Antalyaspor 2-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 72% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 53%, Antalyaspor 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 79% (Fenerbahçe) and 26% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 42% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 79% of Fenerbahçe's recent games and 26% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fenerbahçe and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Antalyaspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Antalyaspor 3-2 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.59 xG and Antalyaspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antalyaspor outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.24 / defence 1.00 against Antalyaspor attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 21%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 72%, Antalyaspor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.