Fenerbahçe 1-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Adana Demirspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fenerbahçe have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fenerbahçe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 8W 2D 0L at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Adana Demirspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Adana Demirspor's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Fenerbahçe's favour (2.60 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Adana Demirspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fenerbahçe lead 3W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2024, ended 4–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 55% versus Adana Demirspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 66% | Adana Demirspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.21 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.349 / defence 0.911 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.963 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.301. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Fenerbahçe games / 38 Adana Demirspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 61% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Adana Demirspor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 80% | Adana Demirspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 61% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.21 / Adana Demirspor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.349 / def 0.911 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.963 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Adana Demirspor xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Fenerbahçe 1 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 61% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor?
Record (6 meetings): Fenerbahçe 3W | Draws 2 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.35) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.96x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.64
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.36
1.14
Adana Demirspor xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
11%
9.16
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
2%
51.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.14 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 31W 6D 1L from 38 games, a 2.61 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. Fenerbahçe haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 14L across 38 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. Adana Demirspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Adana Demirspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 15W 3D 1L from 19 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 1W 10D 8L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.61 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.42 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 61%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Pre-Season
Adana Demirspor
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 31W 6D 1L in their last 38 games (2.61 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 10W 14D 14L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.53 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-4 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
1
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 5, Adana Demirspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-4 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Fenerbahçe, 68% for Adana Demirspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Fenerbahçe and 47% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Fenerbahçe's games and 68% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 47% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Adana Demirspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Adana Demirspor 1-0 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.21 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.14 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fenerbahçe fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Adana Demirspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.35 / defence 0.91 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 61% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 18%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 66%, Adana Demirspor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.61 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.